Objective Rankings- Week 14

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So things got busy and we skipped a week. Not much has changed at the top of the rankings for a month, but there is some interesting things going on after the top two. These would be considered the final rankings, but Army and Navy are playing next week and that game needs to be taken into account. One thing to repeat about these rankings is that this ranking system does not measure whether a team is better than another team. This ranking system measures which team had the better season, or which team did the most with the schedule that they were given. Because the difference in schedules is so great in college football, ranking systems are put in the position of trying to compare teams that played brutal schedule to teams that played a weak schedule and sort the good from the bad. This is one version of that, to understand the methodology better, check here. Below is the Top 25 and below the jump are my thoughts on the near-final rankings:

Rank Team Total Schedule Performance LW
1 LSU 23.56 15.75 7.81 1
2 Alabama 17.90 11.50 6.40 2
3 Oklahoma State 16.98 12.00 4.98 7
4 Wisconsin 16.52 11.25 5.27 6
5 Stanford 16.19 11.25 4.94 4
6 Boise State 15.89 10.75 5.14 8
7 Houston 15.85 11.00 4.85 3
8 Oregon 15.84 11.25 4.59 9
9 Michigan 14.95 10.50 4.45 10
10 Virginia Tech 14.80 11.25 3.55 5
11 Oklahoma 14.50 10.75 3.75 11
12 South Carolina 14.45 11.50 2.95 12
13 TCU 14.45 10.00 4.45 18
14 Southern Miss 14.32 10.50 3.82 19
15 Arkansas 14.01 10.25 3.76 13
16 USC 13.78 10.50 3.28 14
17 Clemson 13.42 11.00 2.42 25
18 Nebraska 13.23 10.50 2.73 17
19 Kansas State 13.19 10.25 2.94 21
20 Michigan State 12.83 9.25 3.58 15
21 Georgia 12.60 10.00 2.60 16
22 Baylor 12.31 10.25 2.06 28
23 Cincinnati 12.23 8.25 3.98 26
24 Tulsa 12.17 9.75 2.42 20
25 Notre Dame 11.98 9.25 2.73 22

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Weekend Picks and Preview- Week 11

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Things are starting to wind down in college football and next week marks the final full slate of games and Rivalry Week. As a result of teams wanting to get ready for rivalry games by scheduling patsies, this week’s slate of games is not very impressive. It took a bit of effort to find 10 games that were worth looking into. Here are my picks and then a brief look at each matchup below.

Game Line Pick
Nebraska @ Michigan UM -3.5 Nebraska
Wisconsin @ Illinois UW -15 Wisconsin
Cincinnati @ Rutgers UC -3 Cincinnati
SMU @ Houston UH -21 SMU*
Penn State @ Ohio State OSU -7 Penn State*
Miami @ South Florida UM -1 Miami
Virginia @ Florida State FSU -17 Virginia*
USC @ Oregon OU -15 Oregon
Oklahoma @ Baylor OU -16 Oklahoma
Kansas State @ Texas UT -8 Kansas State

Nebraska @ Michigan (-3.5): This line says that Vegas thinks that these teams are even and that Michigan gets points due to home field advantage. For me, these two teams sport similar offenses and defenses that have generally played better than they seem. The difference to me is the second-half swoon that Michigan is experiencing. Nebraska wins 31-28.

Wisconsin (-15) @ Illinois: This is a game that looked far more interesting a month ago than it does now. For some reason Illinois couldn’t handle prosperity this season losing 4 straight games after beginning the season 6-0. This would be a great week to rise up and play like it did in the beginning of the season, but it won’t. Wisconsin wins 45-20.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Rutgers: This game took on a little more intrigue when Zach Collaros went down for the Beatcats in a loss to West Virginia. The Bearcats still control its BCS destiny, but Rutgers has a defense that could shut down Cincinnati’s weapons. The question is, can it score? I don’t believe so. Bearcats win 21-17.

SMU @ Houston (-21): Like the Wisconsin/Illinois game, this one looked a lot better before SMU decided to lose 3 of its past 4 games. Houston has been rolling this season against a pretty poor schedule. SMU is a good team that has lost its focus this month. I believe that Houston will win, but won’t put up 70+ points like it has been, and SMU will be able to keep up until the fourth quarter. SMU will cover, but not win 55-41.

Penn State @ Ohio State (-7): I believe that this line is more indicative of the Penn State scandal more than Ohio State being a TD better than the Lions. Ohio State is a better team now than it was at the beginning of the year, which isn’t saying much because it was awful early. But Penn State has a dominant defense that Ohio State hasn’t seen this year and I don’t trust the QB. I don’t believe that the Penn State offense will score enough though and so the Lions will cover but not win 17-14.

Miami (-1) @ South Florida: I would have liked South Florida in this game earlier in the season. But Miami is doing much better at this point in the season while South Florida’s early success seems to have evaporated. This will be a game featuring two of the most unpredictable and entertaining QBs in the nation. Both Jacory Harris and BJ Daniels are headcases that find new ways to put the ball in the hands of the opposing team. But Lamar Miller is a star RB for Miami and will be the difference. Miami wins 30-17.

Virginia @ Florida State (-17): This game, along with the Oklahoma game below, are on here because of the poor slate of games. Florida State will win this game due to an elite defense and stellar special teams. The question is by how much and the Florida State offense will have some issues with the Virginia defense and it will keep this one low-scoring and allow Virginia to cover 24-13.

USC @ Oregon (-15): This is a huge game for Oregon due to the BCS remifications. USC is playing the role of spoiler while showing the world that reports of its demise were greatly exagerrated. Oregon is rolling now and didn’t really even blink when faced with a Stanford team that is better than USC. While USC will score, Oregon will just score more and then pull away in the second half 41-24.

Oklahoma (-16) @ Baylor: Now Bayor has been a great story this year but last week it was challenged by Kansas. Oklahoma smoked Kansas without breaking a sweat. For as much as Baylor is a quality team and RG3 is a stud QB, Oklahoma is playing like it has something to prove and Baylor doesn’t have a defense sufficient to make Oklahoma care. The question for the Sooners is how they cope with the loss of Ryan Bryoles. I expect Kenny Stills to be up to the challenge and style points count. Sooners win 45-10.

Kansas State @ Texas (-8): I bet big on Texas last week and decided I was a believer and it bit me hard. Texas barely showed up against a disappointing Missouri team and was utterly disappointing. Kansas State, on the other hand, has shown heart and talent this season and an ability to overcome difficulty. I can’t imagine Kansas State being awed at Texas and will be able to reach deep and come up with a hard-fought victory 38-31.

 

Objective Rankings- Week 11

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At this point in the season there is a study in contrasts that is going on between objective ranking systems and the BCS. This can be seen in the F/+ rankings at Football Outsiders as well as the rankings on this site. Even with two losses in the Top 10, no team moved more than 2 spots up or down this week. In my opinion, this speaks to how truly down this year is in college football. There are a few really good teams, but once you break through that upper crust there is a whole big pool of blah. The rankings are next and then analysis and observations after the jump:

Rank Team Total Schedule Performance LW Change
1 LSU (10-0) 18.43 11.00 7.43 1 0
2 Alabama (9-1) 17.34 10.00 7.34 2 0
3 Oklahoma State (10-0) 14.72 9.50 5.22 4 1
4 Stanford (9-1) 14.48 9.25 5.23 3 -1
5 Oregon (9-1) 14.42 9.00 5.42 8 3
6 Houston (10-0) 14.21 8.75 5.46 7 1
7 Oklahoma (8-1) 14.12 8.75 5.37 5 -2
8 Boise State (8-1) 13.53 8.50 5.03 6 -2
9 Virginia Tech (9-1) 13.16 9.25 3.91 11 2
10 Michigan (8-2) 12.77 8.00 4.77 12 2
11 Arkansas (9-1) 12.65 8.25 4.40 15 4
12 Southern Miss (9-1) 12.50 8.50 4.00 10 -2
13 South Carolina (8-2) 12.30 9.50 2.80 14 1
14 Nebraska (8-2) 12.28 9.00 3.28 19 5
15 Wisconsin (8-2) 12.24 6.75 5.49 13 -2
16 TCU (8-2) 11.82 8.00 3.82 22 6
17 Clemson (9-1) 11.81 8.75 3.06 16 -1
18 Penn State (8-2) 11.67 8.00 3.67 9 -9
19 Michigan State (8-2) 11.33 8.00 3.33 20 1
20 Georgia (8-2) 11.17 7.75 3.42 21 1
21 Notre Dame (7-3) 11.02 7.75 3.27 18 -3
22 Florida State (7-3) 10.95 6.75 4.20 25 3
23 Kansas State (8-2) 10.48 7.75 2.73 23 0
24 Cincinnati (7-2) 10.41 6.00 4.41 17 -7
25 Arkansas State (8-2) 10.02 7.25 2.77 32 7

New to the Top 25: #25 Arkansas State

Out of the Top 25: #32 Georgia Tech

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Weekend Picks- Week 11

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Limited time this week for picks and previews so enjoy the picks, enjoy the games, and I will try for more detail next week.

Game Line Pick
Nebraska @ Penn State NU -3.5 Penn State
Wake Forest @ Clemson UC -17 Wake Forest*
Michigan State @ Iowa MSU -3 Michigan State
Auburn @ Georgia UGA -12 Georgia
West Virginia @ Cincinnati UC -3.5 Cincinnati
Miami @ Florida State FSU -9 Florida State
TCU @ Boise State BSU -16.5 TCU*
UL Lafayette @ Arkansas State ASU -11 UL Lafayette*
Washington @ USC USC -12 USC
Oregon @ Stanford Stan -3 Stanford

BCS Rankings Analysis- Week 10

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I find it interesting how the BCS rankings and this site’s Objective Rankings are starting to get closer together, on a macro scale, than they were earlier in the season. I think that this is because as the season wears on, the outliers that were picked up by either system (Texas A&M for the BCS, Temple for this site’s system) are weeded out. This is the last week we will look at overrated and underrated teams because those differences are getting both smaller and more meaningful at this point in the season.

Overrated Teams:
#16 Texas Longhorns (#31 in Obj Rank): Yet another week that this team is on the list of overrated teams. However something seems to be changing here. I watched the Longhorn’s win over Texas Tech last week and I was cautiously impressed with how far the team has come this year. There is lots of improvement and heart coming out of Austin at this point in the season and they are starting to play up to their ranking. My gut says that the Objective Ranking will increase to meet the BCS over the next few weeks as long as the Longhorns keep winning.

#25 Baylor Bears (#44 in Obj Rank): Baylor is here because the Big XII is highly thought of. I don’t know that Baylor is that good of a team, but I am sold on RG3 because he is a great QB. My questions about the Bears is on the defensive side. With an season-end schedule including Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech I don’t believe that Baylor will be staying in the BCS Top 25 in the long run.

Underrated by BCS
#10 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (#22 in BCS): My gut says that this is way too high for the Eagles based on a lack of strong wins. Their best win is against SMU, which doesn’t strike me as a strong point for them. I don’t see a loss for them until possibly the CUSA championship against Houston before the bowls. Expect the BCS ranking to move up as those above the Eagles lose. Based on the Eagles poor schedule ranking, I believe that absent any major upsets they have hit their ceiling in the Objective Ranking system.

#12 Michigan Wolverines (#24 in BCS): Michigan is in the middle of its annual second-half swoon but did enough in the first half of the season to warrant a continuned place in the Top 15. BCS poll voters tend to have a short-term memory at this point in the season and dismiss what happened early in the season for recent happenings. If Michigan starts winning again, the BCS will align with the Objective Rankings but if it continues losing it will sink in the BCS standings faster than the Objective Rankings because the Objective Rankings still take into account those early-season games while the pollsters do not.

#18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (#33 in BCS): I may be the only person in the history of the internet to claim that the Irish are underrated. It’s not that bad, and Notre Dame is #9 in this week’s F/+ Rankings at Football Outsiders. But the idea that the national polls haven’t quite jumped on the Irish is kind of surprising because they tend to be the first ones to push the Irish on the American public. Notre Dame lost some early games by poor turnover luck and has played pretty well since. I don’t give them much chance to stay this high as the remaining schedule is weak until Stanford and I don’t believe that the Irish can beat the Cardinal.

Objective Rankings- Week 10

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So we had the most recent “Game of the Century” last Saturday and it appears as though the game came and went without much of an effect on the rankings. As predicted, the amount of variance in these rankings has severely decreased as the season has progressed. While I assume that the BCS will dock Alabama for losing a game that 99% of the rest of the country would lose, the Tide stays strong at number 2 this week. In fact, the entire top six teams have no change other than the swap of the two SEC teams. Looking lower in the rankings, it is funny that CUSA has as many Top 10 teams as the Big XII, SEC and PAC-12 this week. I doubt things will stay that way, but Southern Miss is a good successor to Temple as the biggest surprise in the rankings. Below are the rankings and then my thoughts are after the jump.

  Team Total Schedule Performance LW Change
1 LSU 17.37 10.00 7.37 2 1
2 Alabama 16.57 9.00 7.57 1 -1
3 Stanford 15.70 9.00 6.70 3 0
4 Oklahoma State 14.75 10.00 4.75 4 0
5 Oklahoma 14.62 9.25 5.37 5 0
6 Boise State 14.00 8.25 5.75 6 0
7 Houston 13.18 8.00 5.18 12 5
8 Oregon 13.02 7.50 5.52 8 0
9 Penn State 12.00 7.75 4.25 10 1
10 Southern Miss 11.86 7.50 4.36 17 7
11 Virginia Tech 11.83 7.75 4.08 11 0
12 Michigan 11.76 7.00 4.76 7 -5
13 Wisconsin 11.60 6.00 5.60 15 2
14 South Carolina 11.21 8.50 2.71 14 0
15 Arkansas 11.06 7.25 3.81 18 3
16 Clemson 11.03 7.75 3.28 13 -3
17 Cincinnati 10.92 6.00 4.92 16 -1
18 Notre Dame 10.32 7.25 3.07 25 7
19 Nebraska 10.20 7.00 3.20 9 -10
20 Michigan State 10.19 7.00 3.19 19 -1
21 Georgia 9.79 6.75 3.04 30 9
22 TCU 9.57 5.50 4.07 26 4
23 Kansas State 9.56 6.75 2.81 23 0
24 Georgia Tech 9.16 6.00 3.16 22 -2
25 Florida State 9.15 5.00 4.15 31 6

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Weekend Picks and Previews- Week 10

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This is the week that we’ve been waiting for. Not only do we have a huge matchup between the BCS #1 and #2 we have…umm, well like the SEC itself, once you get past the top its not too amazing and there is a pretty large drop-off. There are a lot of conference games this week that should clarify the bowl picture and heralds the beginning of the end of the season. Last week I was horrible when it came to the spread, going 1-8-1 last week for the worst showing so far this season. I have no real excuse and chronically underestimated the favorites last week. This will will feature shorter analysis and hopefully better results. My season mark for winners is 52-38 but I have gone 39-46-5 ATS. Again, don’t bet on these picks, it will only end in tears.

Game Line Pick
Michigan @ Iowa UM -4 Michigan
Texas Tech @ Texas UT -14.5 Texas Tech
Louisville @ West Virginia WVU -13 Louisville*
TCU @ Wyoming TCU -19 TCU
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma OU -14 Oklahoma
Cincinnati @ Pitt UC -3.5 Cincinnati
South Carolina @ Arkansas Ark -5.5 Arkansas
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State OSU -21.5 Kansas State*
LSU @ Alabama UA -5 Alabama
Oregon @ Washington OU -16.5 Oregon

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Rankings Review: Week 10

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I updated our rankings here, and are as follows:

  1. Alabama
  2. LSU
  3. Oklahoma State
  4. Boise State
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Nebraska
  7. Stanford
  8. Oregon
  9. Clemson
  10. Nebraska
  11. Wisconsin
  12. South Carolina
  13. Houston
  14. Kansas State
  15. Virginia Tech
  16. Texas
  17. USC
  18. Georgia Tech
  19. Arkansas
  20. Michigan State
  21. Michigan
  22. Arizona State
  23. Penn State
  24. West Virginia
  25. Cincinnati
QUICK HITS
- Stanford appears at #4 in the AP, but I’ve docked them for a poor showing against a 2-loss (albeit still underrated) USC. I needed Stanford to beat USC in 3 quarters, not 3 OTs.
- Why is Arkansas ranked so high? They barely beat two perreniel SEC doormats two weeks in a row–Ole Miss, then Vanderbilt. That’s not #8 worthy.
- I consider my failure to include Georgia as my weakest position. The reason is that I can honestly see them losing to my #25, which is Cincinnati. I still am not sure what to do with Georgia. This week’s game (New Mexico State) will do little to answer that question.
- My next weakest position might be Houston. I have this incredible urge to push Houston higher, but they are so difficult to gauge since they haven’t played anyone of note, and they struggled against piss-poor UCLA and UTEP squads.
- In my opinion, Wisconsin has been punished too heavily for barely losing on the road to a pretty good Michigan State team, and barely losing to a better-than-people-are-giving-them-credit-for Ohio State.

Objective Rankings and BCS Analysis- Week 9

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This week has been rough as far as posting is concerned due to an internet outage at home and work taking up more time than expected. This past week saw a two big unbeatens fall (Clemson and Kansas State) and while Wisconsin continued its inability to cover WRs in the final seconds of the game and Oklahoma rebounded from its loss against Texas Tech. Collectively, the nation started holding its breath for this week’s Alabama/LSU game as both of those teams were on bye weeks this week. Due to the lack of time, I will not be doing a full write up of my rankings nor a full comparison with the BCS rankings. The overview is that Wisconsin and Kansas State fell more than any other team showing that the early season numbers weren’t really built on a strong foundation. Oregon is in the Top Ten again and Nebraska shows up for the first time. Below is the Objective Rankings, a list of the teams that fell out, and then a list of the overrated and the underrated teams in the BCS.

  Team Total Schedule Performance LW Change
1 Alabama
(8-0)		 16.55 8.25 8.30 1 0
2 LSU
(8-0)		 16.26 9.00 7.26 2 0
3 Stanford
(8-0)		 15.50 8.75 6.75 3 0
4 Oklahoma State
(8-0)		 13.63 8.50 5.13 5 1
5 Oklahoma
(7-1)		 13.55 8.25 5.30 9 4
6 Boise State
(7-0)		 13.31 7.50 5.81 4 -2
7 Michigan
(7-1)		 12.73 7.00 5.73 6 -1
8 Oregon
(7-1)		 12.10 6.50 5.60 11 3
9 Nebraska
(7-1)		 12.06 8.50 3.56 16 7
10 Penn State
(8-1)		 12.00 7.75 4.25 14 4
11 Virginia Tech
(8-1)		 11.83 7.75 4.08 7 -4
12 Houston
(8-0)		 11.72 6.75 4.97 13 1
13 Clemson
(8-1)		 11.03 7.75 3.28 12 -1
14 South Carolina
(7-1)		 10.88 7.50 3.38 19 5
15 Wisconsin
(6-2)		 10.45 5.00 5.45 8 -7
16 Cincinnati
(6-1)		 10.13 5.00 5.13 17 1
17 Southern Miss
(7-1)		 9.90 5.75 4.15 21 4
18 Arkansas
(7-1)		 9.74 5.75 3.99 22 4
19 Michigan State
(6-2)		 9.64 6.50 3.14 18 -1
20 Arizona State
(6-2)		 9.32 5.50 3.82 29 9
21 Temple
(5-3)		 9.25 3.75 5.50 23 2
22 Georgia Tech
(7-2)		 9.16 6.00 3.16 34 12
23 Kansas State
(7-1)		 9.11 5.75 3.36 10 -13
24 Illinois
(6-3)		 9.01 6.75 2.26 28 4
25 Notre Dame
(5-3)		 8.75 5.75 3.00 33 8

New to the Top 25: #20 Arizona State, #22 Georgia Tech, #24 Illinois, #25 Notre Dame

Out of the Top 25: #35 Texas A&M, #26 TCU, #40 Rutgers, #38 SMU

BCS Analysis
Not much change from last week concerning teams that are currently overrated by the BCS. Only Auburn finds itself off of this list because the Objective Ranking moved the Tigers up this week. #7 Arkansas (#18 in Obj Rnk) finds itself moving up the rankings for no discernable reason other than it is in the SEC West. Near losses against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt haven’t slowed the march. This team is just asking to be knocked off. #18 Georgia (#30 Obj Rnk) also is benefitting from being in the SEC and not losing but not being very impressive. This week the Bulldogs are stretching themselves with a game against New Mexico State. That’s so SEC it hurts. #21 Texas (#48 in Obj Rnk) finds itself riding along based on its name value without a win against a strong team this year. If it is still in the BCS Rankings after the next four weeks, it will have proved itself though as the next four weeks feature games against Texas Tech, Missouri, Kansas State, and Texas A&M. At 5-2, a bowl bid may be in danger against that slate of teams. Finally, #24 West Virginia (#35 in Obj Rnk) remains in the rankings after beating Rutgers and being the only team in the Big East that the voters can name. This week the Mountaineers play a surprisingly resurgent Louisville team before a showdown against Cincinnati the week later. The Big East is a mess with 4 teams having the chance to control their own destiny. West Virginia is one of those, but it won’t remain if it can’t figure out how to play a full 4 quarters.

Unlike the overrated list, the underrated list saw quite a bit of turnover with Temple being the only team that returns. After a week’s absence, #16 Cincinnati (#26 in BCS) shows up on this list again. Cincinnati has not played as well in the past couple of weeks but faces a disappointing and lost Pitt team this week with the opportunity to play the role of frontrunner in the Big East. The most controversial team on this ranking, #21 Temple (#41 in BCS), makes a dead cat bounce up two spots this week but looks to drop with tonight’s loss to Ohio. #24 Illinois (#39 in BCS) moved up this week in spite of losing to Penn State in a sloppy, snow-filled game. This move was fueled mostly by the low score and the improvement that Penn State made to its schedule. I don’t expect Illinois to stay in the Top 25 after this week. Finally, #25 Notre Dame (#35 in BCS) shows up on the back of a major beat down of Navy that impressed this system more than the voters this week. A win against Wake Forest this week should solidify the Irish in the BCS and take them off of this list.

Weekend Picks and Previews- Week 9

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This week’s games are the best we have seen this season, but it is just an appetizer for what will happen next week, which will be the biggest weekend of the season if only because Alabama plays LSU. The spotlight game this weekend is Oklahoma travelling to play Kansas State. This is a big game for the Sooners as they try to rebound from a surprise loss last week and it is a huge game for the Wildcats as they try to keep an undefeated season and Big XII chmapionship in their sights. Other games that have major conference stakes are Michigan State playing Nebraska to see which team will control its destiny for its division championship, Rutgers tries to KO West Virginia’s Big East title chances while keeping its own alive, and Clemson goes to Georgia Tech with both teams within range of their respective ACC division titles. This is the time of the season where things start shaking out and this week promises some major movement in the conference races. Picks below, explanation after the jump:

Game Line Pick
BYU @ TCU TCU -14 TCU
Michigan State @ Nebraska UN -4 Michigan State
Illinois @ Penn State PSU -5 Penn State
Oklahoma @ Kansas State OU -14 Kansas State
West Virginia @ Rutgers WVU -7 Rutgers*
Georgia @ Florida UGA -3 Georgia
Wisconsin @ Ohio State UW -7.5 Wisconsin
Clemson @ Georgia Tech UC -4.5 Clemson
Stanford @ USC Stan -8 Stanford
Wyoming @ San Diego State SDSU -18 San Diego State

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